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The divided states of Europe
#41
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"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#42
Fredledingue Wrote:EuroTribalism was destroyed when Clovis converted to christianism in the 5th century AD.
He gave up the tribe's gods for the unique and unifying God of the western civilization.
Actually that was not the end. A Man or woman born in Budapest sees themselves as one tribe - and not the same tribe as someone born in Paris or London. Each holds true to his own tribe - or else why are there still so many languages spoken? In the Netherlands, drive east out of Eindhoven for a short time, and the Dutchman in the car cannot understand the Dutchman on the street. There are still tribes within tribes.

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#43
Wml, that's languages, dialects, nationalities, cultural differences. Not tribes.

A tribe is a political structure based on ethnicity and a certain common lineage.
Nationalism was an attempt to revive an artificial form of tribalism. Artificial because very few nation in europe are ethnicaly pure. The German nation for example was an invention since Germany was made off several ethnic groups. Like in the Netherland, one german may not understand another german's dialect, yet in the beginning of the 20th century some political group pretended that Germany was an ethnic nation. Same with France. French chauvinism has not ethnic therefore no tribal basis.

From afar smaller nation-countries may seem more ethnicaly homogeneous. But when you enter the country, start to talk with poeple, you are surprised of their tribal diversity.

If you look at the history of Europe it's constantly splitting to be reformed later. Usualy it's argued that all attempts to unite Europe have always failed. That liek the egg and the han. I can also say that all attempts to divide Europe ahve always failed.
Nationalism between Bismark to Hitler was such an attempt. Since ww2 Europe has been in its reunifying cycle.

Another example is the break up of Tchecoslovakia... just to be incorporated into the EU a few years later.
Poeple in eastern europe joked about the fact that they left the Soviet Union to join another Union, the EU.
And this is true: European countries can't stay on their own very long, they all end up in a union of a sort sooner or later.

A single economic zone with a single currency is inevitable due to the tight economic links betweens all the european countries. Links that exist since the dawn of time.

The European Commission (the effective european governement) is only a reformation of the pan-european aristocracy. With other poeple, not their descendants but with the same international principle.

Like the high aristocracy the European Commission
is not elected by the population which make it even further off the ethno-tribal base.

The story of Clovis is important because he was the first or one of the first monarch of post Roman Empire times to see politics beyond tribal expansionism which prevailed at this time.
In the space of 5 years he united all tribes under his authority on a territory roughly the location, the size and the shape of nowaday's France.
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#44
No - I see we need to agree on terminology.

Yes "Tribalism" archaically means a village of closely related families that adhere to local customs and a hierarchy of power. A tribe has a chief, and power is normally inherited - which makes sense when everyone is related anyway. Power is often accompanied by wealth and capital, and that helps to keep power in the family. Mongols and Visigoths were tribal - but on a larger scale.

On the larger scale, communities that adhere to one another out of historical closeness compete with outsiders, and their language aids that separation. An Italian has a proud history that pools him with other Italians, yet San Marino citizens see themselves as a separate entity. Sicilians are different that main-landers. This is often referred to as Tribalism as much as the more exact meaning applied to a small group.

The point I brought up with John Ringo's observation was that an Arab nomad would never expend the energy to raise a barn with a different Family or tribe - wherein America, such cross-tribal activities are commonplace. He went into a long and defining description of the affect, and it does seem quite telling as a difference between cultures.

What is important to our discussion is the fact that groups of people are magnetized together - some more than others... but those groups that can evolve beyond simple quid pro quo are able to make less self-indulgent groupings and loyalties, and produce social contracts the lesser tribes can never have.
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#45
More IMF problems; will money be printed?

Quote:Christine Lagarde has signalled that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may have to tap its members – including Britain – for billions of pounds of extra funding to stem the European debt crisis.

The head of the IMF has warned that its $384bn (£248bn) war chest designed as an emergency bail-out fund is inadequate to deliver the scale of the support required by troubled states.

LINK
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#46
Everybody is going to be printing money, like crazy, very soon, if not already. I suspect this alone is going to be more than enough to signal the demise of the Euro, which will not allow the members countries to help fix their debt through inflation.

Remember how everyone was touting the rise of Europe and it being the biggest, baddest, more powerful, economic entity in the world? LOL!

One huge train wreck in the making.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#47
The stock market with go up for a week or so until the next scare.

The train wreck will take a year or two to develop, I wot.

Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#48
It's free market logic that poor investments like PIIGS bounds are losing money.
The sovereign debt crisis will be solved less and less through bying back sovereign bounds, and more and more (if not entirely) through letting these bonds defaulting and bailing-out the banks who would lose too much money eventualy.

The idea to insure tha bonds, partialy, is one way to do that.

I expect sovereign bounds investors to lose 30% on Italy and Spain, 10% on France, 20% on Belgium, 40% on Portugal, 30% on Ireland, 20% on UK and 15% on US.
These investors can lose through inflation in the case of non-eurozone countries, eg the UK and the US. Or through principal cut as they started with Greece.
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#49
CDS's and bond insurance are only as good as the issuer. That is (partially) what got us into the mess after the housing crash and financial institution crash in the US, when it was discovered that no one knew who would take the losses due to the complexity and multiple counterparty aspects of these instruments.

I suspect that is what is spooking the EU now: no one can tell who will take the hits and the elites fear their banking buddies will go down. The positive aspect of this is that no one is blaming the Jews this time around; it is equal opportunity greed and overextension.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#50
Here's the thing: if Greece turns down the referendum, the loans don't go through, and the banks are let off the hook. That would be good IMO. And also, Greece leaves the Union to flounder on its own. That also is good IMO.

So why all the angst over this? Perhaps this just fortifies Charlie Gasparino's comment that Stock Traders are some of the dumbest people on the planet?

Quote:GASPARINO: Stock traders are some -- the traders are some of the dumbest people on the face of the earth.

NAPOLITANO: Can you say that again?

GASPARINO: Stock traders are some of the dumbest people on the face of the earth. They press buttons when they see headlines. Just the nature of the beast (ph). They don't think long term.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#51
Traders are the dumbest poeple on Earth but they make a lot of money until their whole system fails. Then we face a global financial crisis.

They are playing on the rumors and won't even bother whether they are right or false. But because everybody plays the same game they know it will work.
Then come the trend reversal and they are all screwed.

I don't know how many billions of dollars are lost every day just because they sold on rumor or bought on a day of frenzy, but it must be massive.

During the dot.com bubble in 2001, I hoped that such traders would whiped out. Nope!
In 2008 and even today there are even more of them.
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#52
Fredle... Wrote:I don't know how many billions of dollars are lost every day just because they sold on rumor or bought on a day of frenzy, but it must be massive.

For most of them I suspect it is usually a zero sum game: Winning amount = Loosing amount. However, Corzine fits your example, as do the traders who got caught in an unexpected market downturn.

My understanding is that many or most traders now use computer models and are in and out of the market in seconds. They also hedge long term trades with puts/calls etc. which can be hazardous, but only occasionally are there noteworthy/newsworthy losses.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#53
IMO it's a zero-sum game when you take all of them and make an average. But some of them become very rich while other lose a lot of money (or make their fund lose a lot of money).

Market reaction become increasingly stupid. I wonder if they are not using softwares reading the news automaticaly with pre-programmed reactions upon keywords.

These days it became so crazy that a political debate in Italy, an insult thrown in the French Parliement, a two party leader gisagreeing in Greece and the market sell-off. A or buy in when an agreement is oraly aproved by group of lawmakers...

The markets has never followed local politics as much as today. It's funny to watch.
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#54
Yep. All the computerized trading programs are probably worthless, being over ridden by emotional humans. Yet the US markets remain in an uptrend, even if challenged a bit by yesterdays drop.

Too bad one cannot buy defense contractor stocks, due to the conditions on the super committee which is bound to fail and trigger vast cuts in defense spending, at some time in the not so near future.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#55
I don't know what's your definition of "uptrend". Must be the same as my definition of 'stagnation". :?

you Wrote:the conditions on the super committee which is bound to fail and trigger vast cuts in defense spending, at some time in the not so near future
First time (today) I read that the automatic trigger would be in the form of defense spending...
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#56
Fredle..., we are in a very short minor uptrend over the last couple of weeks, not a major secular uptrend.

The automatic trigger cuts defense and medicare/medicaid as I understand. Thus the conservatives who like strong defense will be angry and the rest of the populace will blame the conservatives for taking their "benefits" away.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#57
Even fellow conservatives will cry about their social security and such being hacked up.

I knew we were in for a hard fight, hell, perhaps done for really, when I saw a ton of old people wail about their benuhfitss to Romney, conservatives the majority of them.
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#58
Comments from a Turk about Greece's contribution to EU.

Quote:Here you can watch the RT news covering the End of Europe
You know we Turks tried to Conquer europe with wars ...but somehow Greeks managed to destroy the worlds biggest economy by just ....well SITTING ON THEIR FAT ARS.....
Perhaps there is only 1 thing to say now ..
BYE BYE EURO
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#59
three things:
1. Very old clip (Match 2010)... albeit still applicable.
2. Blaming solely Greece (as the Turk, but not RT, does) is not fair: all of the EU, as well as the US, are fiscally irresponsible.
3. worlds biggest economy -- the combined EU may not be the biggest economy anymore, they are rapidly decreasing... from 36% of world's down to about half of it now. And if the Turk meant the US economy, then who needs Greece when we got Obama?
Sodomia delenda est

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#60
Nigel Farage, gets right to the heart of the problem in this five minute interview, explaining exactly why the Euro is doomed to failure, no matter how much European politicians and bureaucrats want it to succeed.

And while the Brits are leading the charge, and taking all the heat, there is no way short of economic dictatorship, that it will remain solvent. David Cameron has made a name for himself over this issue, and while it may not be popular now, historians will look back at his veto and mark it as a defining point in European history.

And note the phrase "Franco-German" on the title of this video, because what is really going on is the inherent conflict between the "Anglo-American" philosophy versus the "Franco-German" one.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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